Answers: Census and the Implications of Demographic Change

As May drew to a close, China announced it will allow couples to have up to three children. The latest census showed a steep fall in birth rates.

This quiz looks at censuses and the political, economic and electoral implications of the demographic changes they reflect. The 2020-21 period marks the time when the once-in-a-decade census is conducted in large parts of the world.

Questions and Answers 

1) This country’s first post-independence census was held in 1962. Provisional figures showed that the southern regions put together had a higher population than the northern region. The census was cancelled, a recount was ordered amid allegations of political inference by northern leaders. The new numbers showed the north with a majority. The political rivalry amid religious and linguistic differences shortly led to a secessionist movement, civil war and a series of military coups. Since then the country has managed to conduct only three more censuses - in 1973, 1991 and 2006, throwing up disputed numbers. It’s now making preparations for a new census. Which country?

Nigeria. The north-south divide led to civil war in the 1960s following the declaration of a ‘Republic of Biafra’ in the southeast. While the secessionist movement was crushed, rumblings of discontent have persisted. Memories of the conflict have been reignited recently by President Buhari’s controversial post that Twitter deleted and his government’s subsequent ban on Twitter .

More on Nigeria’s census troubles here and here.

March 2024 update: The census is now expected in November 2024 after multiple postponements. (yet to take place)

2) The population of this advanced economy declined for the first time on record in 2020. Its fertility rate of 0.84 is the lowest in the world. State efforts to boost birth rates by subsidising pay during childcare leave and providing free nurseries have had little impact. Which country?

South Korea. More here and here. While Japan was a popular answer, its population has been falling for the last 12 years.

3) X worked for the U.S. Census Bureau for the long-drawn-out 1880 census. He adapted the product Y, which had been first used in the 18th century by the textile industry. Y was inserted into a tabulating machine that he invented. This massively sped up the census counting process in 1890. X set up a company which, after a series of mergers evolved into Z in 1924 (company Z is still around). Name X, Y and Z.

X = Herman Hollerith, Y = Punched cards, Z = IBM

4) This country, notorious for religious and sectarian divisions, has not held a census since 1932 when it was under colonial rule. Political allocations based on the 1932 figures still hold sway, though marred by allegations that one community was favoured by inflating its numbers. Which country?

Lebanon. The 1932 census showed Christians had a majority but the data has been marred by allegations emigrants were also counted to pad up Christian numbers. More here and here. The Taif agreement that ushered in the end of the brutal 1975-90 civil war reconfigured the parliamentary seat ratio between Christian and Muslim sects to 50:50. The powers of the Shia Muslim speaker and the Sunni Muslim prime minister were boosted, at the expense of the Maronite Christian president.

My quiz on Lebanon below.

5) People with roots in this region (outside the Americas) are classified as ‘white’ in the U.S. Census despite multiple efforts pushing for a separate category. Advocates for change say the current classification has wide-ranging implications stretching from the lack of political representation to public health. Which region?

Middle East and North Africa. More here, here and here. By contrast, the earliest generations of Lebanese/Syrian immigrants in early 20th century U.S. had succeeded in being legally classified as Caucasian/White and were thus eligible for citizenship (George Shishim and George Dow cases). At the time only ‘white’ immigrants could gain citizenship.

March 2024 update: A new reporting category, Middle Eastern or North African (MENA), has been added for the next census in 2030. More here, here and here.

6) This renowned author worked as a census enumerator in his country’s capital city in 1882. He chronicled his observations of working-class life and poverty in the city in an 1886 book What to do? Thoughts Evoked by the Census of ———-”. Name the author and the city. (He wrote, “The interest and significance of the census for the community lie in this, that it furnishes it with a mirror into which, willy-nilly, the whole community, and each one of us, gaze.”)

Leo Tolstoy, Moscow

7) This country, then colonised by a neighbouring kingdom was the first to hold a modern census in 1703. The total population amounted to 50,366, with name, age and social status of every individual recorded. Which country?

Iceland

8) It required a referendum in 1967 (90.77% voted yes) for the indigenous people of this country to be counted in the national census. Which country?

Australia. Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people were counted only after the 1967 referendum

9) The decennial census is underway in this country, including in a region known for sectarian tensions and conflict. In that region, the minority sectarian group is poised to overtake the majority group so far for the first time. The minority group already has higher numbers in schools and universities. The demographic changes come at a particularly fraught moment. Which region?

Northern Ireland. Catholics are inching closer to replacing Protestants as the majority group even as Brexit roils the region. More here, here and here

September 2022 update: The 2021 census revealed that Catholics have outnumbered Protestants in Northern Ireland for the first time

10) Since independence in 1960, this country carried out a census only once (1984). Its term-limited President tried to push through a law in 2015 requiring a census before elections. It was seen as a ploy to delay the vote, sparking violent protests. Finally elections took place in December 2018. It marked the country’s first peaceful transfer of power, though marred by allegations of rigging. Which country?

Democratic Republic of the Congo. The term-limited President was Joseph Kabila

11) This country failed to hold its decennial census in 1991, taking seven more years. Violence as well as ethnic and linguistic tensions have clouded the process, with three of the provinces wary of the economic and political clout of the fourth and most populous one. In addition there are concerns about including migrants from a neighbouring war-torn country. It was only in 2017 that a census was carried out after 1998. Regional divisions held up approval of the results and they were released only last month. Which country?

Pakistan

12) The population of this U.S. state has been nearly flat since 2017. After the latest census it has lost a congressional seat for the first time in its history. Which state? (Census Bureau population data is used to determine how the 435 seats in the House of Representatives are allocated between the states)

California. More here and here

13) This country formed a Delimitation Commission in 2002 for the first time since the 1970s to revamp parliamentary constituency boundaries to reflect the 2001 census figures. But the commission did not touch the political hot potato of adding or reducing seats for states on the basis of population. With a coalition government in power, Parliament froze state numbers until 2026. Population growth in the poorer northern states continues to outstrip the relatively prosperous southern states. The latest census, due to be held in 2021, has been delayed by the pandemic. 2026 may well see a transformation in the political balance, if states are allocated seats on the basis of population. Which country?

India. Coincidentally about a week after I posted the question, historian Ramachandra Guha wrote that South India’s role in national politics may diminish further, despite expanding the gap with the North when it comes to economic and social indices.