Answers: Swing states and the 2024 U.S. election
A handful of swing states will decide whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris becomes the next U.S. President. The winner has to hit the target of 270 electoral college votes out of a total of 538. A candidate can fall short in the overall vote but still triumph by securing an electoral college majority (Donald Trump vs Hillary Clinton in 2016 when more Americans overall voted for Clinton).
Each of the 50 states is assigned two electoral college votes based on the number of senators (two each). The additional EC votes are based on the number of Congressional districts each state has in the House of Representatives, which in turn is based on the state’s population. Alaska, the largest state by area but sparsely populated has only three EC votes (2 senators+1 Congressional district in the House) while the most populous state, California has 54 EC votes (2 senators+52 Congressional districts in the House). The only non-state entity with electoral college votes is the District of Columbia (Washington DC). From 1964 the capital city has been assigned three electoral college votes, though it is not represented in the Senate and its non-voting House member has limited rights.
The seven swing states are Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes), Michigan (15), Wisconsin (10), Arizona (11), Nevada (6), Georgia (16) and North Carolina (16). There is also one vote from the 2nd congressional district in Nebraska, which I explain further in the second answer.
Answers
1) This state with four electoral college votes has voted overall for the Democratic nominee in every election from 1992. It has two Congressional districts and two of its four EC votes are awarded based on who wins a particular Congressional district. In 2016 Donald Trump finished ahead of Hillary Clinton in one of the districts, taking one electoral college vote out of four. Trump repeated the feat in 2020 against Joe Biden. Which state?
Maine. Donald Trump is again favoured to win the northeastern state’s rural 2nd Congressional district. Maine changed the winner-take-all system in 1969, allotting two of its four electoral college votes to the winner in each of its two Congressional districts. This was in response to the three-way presidential contest between Richard Nixon, Hubert Humphrey and the segregationist George Wallace in 1968.
2) Another state, reliably Republican after 1964 when Lyndon Johnson won also allots three of its five electoral college votes based on who wins a Congressional district. Barack Obama took one EC vote in 2008 and so did Joe Biden in 2020. Which state?
Nebraska, which passed the split-vote law in 1991. The state’s 2nd Congressional district, which includes its biggest city Omaha chose Barack Obama in 2008 and Joe Biden in 2020. A Donald Trump-backed push this year to return to a winner-take-all system did not have enough votes in the state legislature. Democrats in Maine warned that if Nebraska goes ahead they would respond by removing their state’s split-vote system. Kamala Harris is favoured to win the 2nd Congressional district.
If Harris wins Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin while Trump wins Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina, she will move up to 269. In this scenario, the one vote in Nebraska is crucial to reach the winning 270 mark.
September update: The Trump campaign made another push for a special legislative session to enact winner-take-all. But a key holdout, Democrat-turned-Republican state senator Mike McDonnell announced he remained opposed to the move.
Post-election update: Nebraska’s 2nd district was the only electoral college swing vote that went to Kamala Harris. Donald Trump won all the seven swing states.
3) This state had reliably voted Republican after 1948 when Democrat Harry Truman won (the exception being 1996 when Bill Clinton defeated Bob Dole with Ross Perot taking 8% of the vote). But Joe Biden won a close race in 2020 and it’s now a swing state. Which state?
4) Barack Obama pulled off a narrow win in this southern state in 2008, the first Democratic triumph there since Jimmy Carter in 1976. Obama lost to Mitt Romney in 2012 despite holding the Democratic convention there. Donald Trump won in 2016 and 2020 and a close race is expected this time. Which state?
North Carolina. The state also has a governor’s race this year and Republican candidate Mark Robinson has been on the backfoot over a series of controversial comments.
5) This former swing state had the reputation of voting for the winner after 1960 when it chose Richard Nixon over John F. Kennedy. No Republican has been elected President so far without winning this state. Donald Trump has turned the state Republican with comfortable wins in 2016 and 2020. But 2020 marked the first time after 1960 that this state voted for the losing candidate. Which state?
Ohio. Donald Trump was the winner in 2020. The state elected J.D. Vance to the Senate in 2022 and two years later he became Trump’s running mate.
6) This southern state, which has produced one President since 1948, held out against the Reagan wave in 1980 but went on to become a Republican redoubt (with the exception of 1992 when Bill Clinton won a close race against George H. W. Bush with Ross Perot taking over 13% of the vote). But the Trump presidency saw the state acquiring swing state status. Joe Biden narrowly won in 2020. Which state?
Georgia. Jimmy Carter’s home state was the only southern state to back his doomed re-election campaign in 1980 against Ronald Reagan.
Two Senate races took place in Georgia along with the presidential race in 2020. Both races could not be decided in November as none of the candidates secured the necessary 50 percent+1 votes needed for victory under the state’s laws. Runoff votes were held on January 5 and Democratic candidates Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock emerged victorious, hours before the January 6 attack on Capitol Hill by supporters of then President Donald Trump. The twin wins meant Democrats inched to 50 seats in the Senate, the same number as Republicans. But Vice President Kamala Harris’ role as president of the Senate allowed her to cast tie-breaking votes. Control of Georgia’s Senate delegation was crucial for legislation pushed by the Biden Administration especially in its first two years, when Democrats had a majority both in the House and Senate.
In November 2020, sitting Republican senator David Perdue had secured 49.7 percent of the vote while Democratic rival Jon Ossoff got 48 percent. If Perdue had got 0.3 percent more of the vote, Republicans would have retained control of the Senate and passing legislation and pushing through judicial conformations would have been far more arduous for the Biden administration.
Georgia’s Republican governor Brian Kemp officially certified Joe Biden’s victory in the state, despite Trump’s objections. Kemp was re-elected in 2022, months after defeating a Trump-backed Republican primary challenger. Kemp and Trump appear to have made peace now as another close race looms in Georgia. More here and here.
7) Starting from 1992 these three states had reliably voted Democratic until Donald Trump stunned Hillary Clinton by narrow margins in each one in 2016. These three have been described as 'Blue Wall' states and Joe Biden won all three in 2020. They have been the biggest focus of the campaigns this year as well. Which three states?
Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Infamously, Hillary Clinton didn’t even campaign in Wisconsin. Biden won all three states in 2020. More here.
8) This western state was Republican-leaning and chose Bush over Gore in 2000 and Bush over Kerry in 2004. Since then it’s voted for the Democratic contender in presidential elections, though the margins have been close. It’s considered a swing state this time too. Which state?
Nevada. The case for Nevada being crucial for Donald Trump in a close race is made here. More here.
9) When was the last time a Republican candidate won the presidential election (in electoral college terms) as well as the popular vote?
George W. Bush in 2004 when he defeated John Kerry. In 2000 more votes overall were cast for Al Gore while Bush narrowly secured the electoral college numbers. 2008 and onwards, the Democrats have won the most number of votes, including in 2016 when Trump defeated Hillary Clinton under the electoral college system.
If the electoral college count is deadlocked 269-269, the House of Representatives gets to choose the President. Each state has one vote and a majority of 26 votes is needed for the winner. If a state has six Republicans and five Democrats in its House delegation, its lone vote will go to the Republican side. The composition of the House delegations within states favour the Republican candidate, even if Democrats win a majority in November. More here and here. The 100-strong Senate gets to choose the Vice President.
Back in 2015, the TV series Veep depicted a fictional scenario with a 269-269 deadlock as well as a 25-25 tie in the House of Representatives. In this case, the Vice President chosen by the Senate gets to become the President.