Answers: Global Demographic Trends
China officially announced in January its population had fallen for the first time in over 60 years, despite scrapping the one-child policy seven years ago. India is projected to become the world’s most populous nation some time this year. While populations shrink in the Western world and parts of Asia, the United Nations expects sub-Saharan Africa’s population to nearly double to more than 2 billion by 2050. More here, here and here.
The UN Population Fund’s World Population Dashboard showed on April 19, 2023 that India’s population has crossed 1.428 billion, overtaking China’s more than 1.425 billion people.
Questions and Answers
1) It was the first time in over six decades that China officially recorded a decline in its population. What was behind the decline in 1961?
Famine caused by Mao Zedong’s Great Leap Forward policy of collectivising farmland and creating communes. More here, here, here and here. Estimates of the death toll vary from 30 million to 45 million people.
2) What’s changed in China’s Sichuan province this January when it comes to registering a birth? (besides dropping limits on the number of children a married couple can register)
All citizens including unmarried parents can register births. Sichuan is also removing limits on the number of children that can be registered. More here and here. Some other provinces have also dropped the marriage requirement for birth registrations. More here.
3) Which country’s Prime Minister warned in January it’s “now or never” on the question of reversing its population decline? He added. “Our nation is on the cusp of whether it can maintain its societal functions”.
Japan. More here, here and here.
4) This island’s population fell for a third consecutive year in 2022. Amid concerns of a sharp fall in the number of men available for mandatory military service, the period was raised from four months to one year at the end of 2022. Its National Development Council is warning that the fertility rate will fall below that of South Korea by 2035 (South Korea now has the world’s lowest fertility rate). Where?
Taiwan. More here and here. The decline in population has added to concerns about the island’s defence capabilities amid the increasing military threat from China. You can read more about the importance of Taiwan in my earlier quiz
5) In January, this country’s pension service warned that it is on track to run out of money in 2055 in the face of low births and an ageing population. The pension fund is projected to start running a deficit from 2041.
South Korea. Official data released in February show the country has broken its own record for the lowest fertility rate in the world. The average number of expected babies per South Korean woman has fallen to 0.78 in 2022, compared to 0.81 a year earlier. More here and here.
6) This country has conducted a census every ten years starting in 1881 until 2021 when it was delayed for the first time due to the covid-19 pandemic. The government delayed it again in December 2022 citing the pandemic, with no clarity on when it will be held. Which country?
India. More here, here and here. Parliamentary elections are due in 2024.
A deep dive into what could be behind the delay and the thorny question of a ‘caste census’ here.
7) This country is to conduct its first national census in 17 years at the end of March after presidential elections. It’s estimated to have more than 200 million people now. The population is projected to double by 2050, overtaking the United States. Which country?
Nigeria. More here. The ruling party’s Bola Tinubu has been declared the winner of the presidential election but the two main opposition candidates called the poll a sham. More here.
8) Which state had the biggest population growth in the U.S. between 2021 and 2022, becoming the second state to cross 30 million?
Texas. More here and here. In another demographic milestone pointed out here the number of Hispanic residents in the state may have overtaken that of white residents. Texas’ population boom has political implications. The most populated Republican state in the U.S. will have 40 electoral college votes in the 2024 presidential election, gaining two after the last census in 2020.
California is the only U.S. state with more people than Texas but its population has shrunk in 2021 and 2022. More here and here. For the first time, California has lost an electoral college vote. The state dominated by Democrats will have 54 electoral college votes in 2024 compared to 55 in 2020. I had covered California’s population concerns in an earlier quiz on demographic change here.
9) This country’s population crossed 104 million in 2022, up from 81.4 million in 2011 (a year of upheaval). Its president has warned that rapid population growth hinders economic development but has rejected calls to make family planning compulsory, saying it would clash with religious beliefs. Which country?
10) This country’s fertility rate reached a peak of 6.5 children per woman in 1986 amid war with its neighbour as its leader spoke about creating an army of 20 million. Two years later, its government reversed course providing subsidised contraceptives and promoting slogans such as “Fewer children, a better life” and “One child is good, two are enough”. But now the fertility rate has fallen to 1.6, the lowest in the country’s wider region. The government has cancelled subsidies for condoms and birth control pills and ended free vasectomies. Which country?
Iran. The government promoted family planning in the aftermath of the war with Iraq in the 1980s. Over the past decade as concerns about a low fertility rate and an ageing population took hold, the government is trying to encourage Iranians to have more children. More here, here, here and here.
11) This country’s national statistical agency said in December that it’s ageing at a much faster rate than other European Union countries. The agency predicts the country could lose a fifth of its residents by 2070. Some deserted towns are offering people money to settle there. A new government elected to office last year created a new ministry dealing with family and the birth rate. Which country?
Italy. Right-wing Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has emphasised the importance of raising birth rates and helping working mothers but critics say her opposition to immigration hinders population growth. More here, here, here and here.
12) Which European country has the world’s fastest shrinking population, dropping in the 2021 census by 11.5 per cent compared to 2011? It now has just over 6.5 million people compared to a peak of 8.9 million in 1985. The UN Population Division projects that it will lose 23% of its population by 2050.
Bulgaria. More here, here, here and here.
13) The population of which European country rose above five million in 2021 for the first time since 1851 when the population was 5.11 million?
Ireland. The country had recorded 8.2 million people in its 1841 census. But the Great Famine over the subsequent decade took away a million lives and millions of others emigrated. More here, here and here.
The Irish diaspora is estimated to be larger than the population of the island of Ireland, north and south. More here and here. Armenia and Lebanon are other examples where the population within is smaller than the diaspora.
In Northern Ireland, which is part of the United Kingdom, the 2021 census showed that Catholics outnumbered Protestants for the first time, a demographic shift with major political implications. This was a question in my previous quiz on demographic change.
14) Starting in 2017 this country in the Americas has seen its population fall every year. Its demographic crisis has been exacerbated over the past year by the biggest migration during the past six decades as an economic crisis worsens. Where?
Cuba. More here on Cuban state media. More here, here and here.